‘We want to get coffee down a little bit’: Soaring caffeine prices have Trump's attention
- - ‘We want to get coffee down a little bit’: Soaring caffeine prices have Trump's attention
Ben WerschkulOctober 28, 2025 at 4:00 AM
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Surging coffee prices — up over 25% since Donald Trump took office — have emerged as an acute pain point in American grocery baskets and have now gained the president’s attention.
"We want to get coffee down a little bit," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Monday after a weekend trip to Malaysia saw caffeine on the agenda.
First, the president sat down with Brazil (the world’s top coffee producer) while attending a summit there and told President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva that "we should be able to make some pretty good deals for both countries."
It was a notable about-face in relations after Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil earlier this year, hitting coffee prices hard in the process.
During the stop, the president also finalized a trade deal with Vietnam (the world’s second-largest coffee producer), including new exemptions for some agricultural products from that country's top-line rate of 20%.
Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed Monday that coffee would be on the exemption list alongside some other items that "we don't make in the United States or grow."
President Donald Trump and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, right, field questions aboard Air Force One on October 27. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images) (Andrew Harnik via Getty Images)
Brazil and Vietnam together make up over half of global coffee production, according to the US government.
The recent moves are part of a larger challenge facing the president as he asks Americans to trust his stewardship of inflation — and often claims inflation has been “defeated” — while polls show consumers growing unhappy over prices in the grocery store.
Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
An October AP-NORC poll found about half of US adults reporting that the cost of groceries is "a major source of stress."
Trump's new openness to concessions on coffee prices also comes after even some of his closest allies have been critical of the president’s coffee approach, as it’s been increasingly unavoidable that coffee cost increases this year have one direct cause: tariffs.
As RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas noted in a recent analysis note, recent coffee price jumps are “purely tariff induced” in contrast to other goods.
A good atop consumers' — and economists' — minds
Coffee prices are just one spiking item at the grocery store.
Beef prices are up around 15%, which has led to action from Trump in recent weeks in the form of controversial plans to purchase more Argentine beef.
Trump also took to Truth Social to prod American cattle ranchers to “get their prices down.”
Meanwhile, minimal coffee is grown in the US, contributing to even bigger fluctuations there.
The retail price for a pound of ground coffee in September was about $9.14, up over $2 since January.
The price was under $6 a pound as recently as May 2024.
Coffee is served at a coffee shop in New York City in October.. (ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images) (ANGELA WEISS via Getty Images)
The series of price increases, according to producers, was driven first by adverse weather conditions, then exacerbated this year by tariffs.
Pressed on Sunday on NBC’s Meet the Press about surging grocery prices — with coffee front and center as usual — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the focus on those specific outsized increases amounts to cherry picking. He focused on other prices to argue that inflation in aggregate is under control.
Read more: 5 ways to tariff-proof your finances
The cash register reality is also strikingly at odds with Trump’s declarations, with the president often claiming that "inflation has been defeated" or "taken care of."
Trump’s handling of coffee tariffs came under recent fire from at least one of his most stalwart allies when Stephen Moore cited the price increases and, without saying Trump's name, wrote, ”Economics 101: Tariffs don’t punish producers — they punish consumers.”
It was a notable critique coming from a longtime, close ally. Moore once co-wrote a book called “Trumponomics” and earlier this year praised Trump’s approach to the economy in the Oval Office.
The Heritage Foundation's Stephen Moore and President Donald Trump in the Oval Office in August. (Win McNamee/Getty Images) (Win McNamee via Getty Images)
Whether Trump’s moves to detente with Brazil and Vietnam result in lower coffee prices in the months ahead remains to be seen.
But at least one other major coffee producer may continue to face the president’s ire.
Colombia is the world’s third-largest coffee producer and hasn’t seen concessions, with Trump instead announcing new sanctions late last week over drug trade allegations.
A recent Oxford Economics note warned that new tariffs on Colombia — which Trump has also promised — would likely hit coffee first.
Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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